[News]

The future? It belongs to granny


Italy is the first and only country in the world where the population of people over 65 years of age is greater than those under 15. If the birth rate remains as low as it is today, in the year 2040 there will be an eighty year old for every 10 people, revolutionizing society’s structure.

I taly had the record for the lowest birth rate on the planet; but now it has officially become the first and only country in the world where the "over 65" outnumber the "under 15". Precisely, the elderly have reached 16% of the population whereas young people account for only 15%.

According to the data from the Italian Institute of population research (Centro Nazionale Ricerche), in the next 45 years the elderly will increase by 7 million, bringing them from 12.5 million to 19.5 million. On the other hand, people under 60 years of age will decrease to 17 million, with a drastic drop from 44 million to 28 million. Another fact: in 1950 there was an eighty year old for every 92 people, today we are at one for every 27 and in the year 2040 there will be an eighty year old for every 10 people.

Italy will have enormous difficulties if the birth rate remains at this level. In the year 2030, 60 year olds will outnumber the work force (including the unemployed). Therefore, even if the retirement age is raised, pension funds will be missing. Another problem is health care: the amount of elderly people with typical health problems will increase exponentially, even if advancements in medicine will ameliorate general health standards. Finally, many towns will disappear, above all, in mountainous areas (about 400 according to the latest estimates), due to under-population, as young people today have already started to abandon them.

Alessandro Mognon